Newcastle United v Swansea – Premier League Betting Preview + Prediction
16 Apr 2016, Newcastle upon Tyne ,14:00
Newcastle are struggling defensively as Janmaat, Coloccini, Taylor, Haidara and Mbabu remain out, the former two being regular starters. Good news is Dummett should start at full back, with Lascelles stepping in centrally alongside Mbemba. Anita may be forced into playing out of position once more, moving to right back. The return of Colback is a boost, and he should start alongside Shelvey. They’re in deep relegation trouble and know this is a game they cannot afford to lose if they want to keep their hopes realistically alive. Defensively they look poor, so will have to attack well in order to win. They’ll happily allow Swansea more possession and hit them on the break. They’ve got more at stake and are capable of winning, but they have to improve defensively from recent games.
Swansea are in good health heading to Newcastle, with their only injury concern Britton having passed fit. Having beaten Chelsea last time out Guidolin may choose to name an unchanged 11, meaning Montero keeps his starting place. They have good competition if rotation is seen, with Sung-Yeung Ki, Barrow and Gomis all pushing to break back into the starting 11, but they’ll likely make the bench. They’ve effectively secured their Premier League status by reaching the 40 point mark, so there’s not a great deal at stake for them, they will try to control possession and break Newcastle down, but they have to be wary of the counter attack. It could be a fairly open game, but Swansea wouldn’t be too unhappy to draw.
Benitez is expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation, despite the lack of form shown by his players. A 4-4-2 is an option, but given how open they are at the back it looks unlikely. It’s a game they really have to win so they’ll want to start quickly, but staying organised at the back is crucial. If they can make a positive start and get the fans onside they’ll grow in confidence and cause Swansea problems with their attacking play. If they’re level late on they have to take a few risks and will open up, with a draw not suiting. They have the players to win, but a result won’t come easily. They are still better at home than Swansea on the road. I expect a tough match and but given the home advantage for Magpies and importance of this match, I can see them taking all three points here.
Prediction: Newcastle United -0.25
Odds: 1.98 Pinnacle
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