LOL LEC Spring Week 2 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
MAD Lions vs Excel Esports
Friday, January 29 – 18:00 CET
Excel have won only one fixture this split, but we can’t say we weren’t impressed with what they have shown. Even though they only managed to defeat Astralis, it’s hard to be overly-critical about their losses against G2 Esports and Rogue, considering those are by far the sharpest-looking teams heading into the second week of LEC Spring.
There are two main things we like about Excel – their drafting and composed playstyle, which are two characteristics any top-team should have. They might not have superstar players on their squad, but they at least know how to approach their games.
On the other side we have MAD Lions, who looked decent against G2 and in their win over Astralis, but were not as convincing with their showing against Misfits, who crushed them with 28-9 in kills and 11-2 in turrets. Armut and Elyoya are slowly proving they belong in the LEC, but it’s obvious they will need a bit more time before they fully adapt.
MAD Lions seem to have solid individual pieces, however, the gap is not nearly as high as the betting odds suggest, especially in the bottom lane, where MAD Lions haven’t looked look too sharp of late. This is one of the tightly contested mid-table bouts which seems like it could go either way. Even though MAD should prove to be a better team down the line, I’m, not ready to back them at the offered odds and in their current form.
Prediction: Excel to win – 2.36 at Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs SK Gaming
Friday, January 29 – 19:00 CET
I won’t be spending too much time analyzing this matchup since there are not many good things to say about either side. Schalke are underperforming, where SK can look solid at times, but they seem to lack that little something to push them across the line.
This is a 50/50 match, so I’m happy I can get SK at a better price. I would even take them at slightly below even money since they are playing better than Schalke who just don’t impress me. This is also the type of a match that can easily turn into a clown fiesta so there are many arguments to make in favor of the underdogs.
One more thing that caught our attention is the total kill line, which is set at only 21.5, which is extremely low. Even though SK were not involved in any particularly high-scoring games last week, I just can’t pass on this bet.
Prediction: Over 21.5 kills – 1.877 at Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Astralis
Friday, January 29 – 20:00 CET
G2 Esports have made it publicly know that they are currently in the process of “trying out new things”, which leads me to believe it’s only a matter of time before they lose to an underdog. Although I don’t see how they can lose to Astralis. who are by far the worst team in the league I am also not ready to trust G2 to cover the 10.5 kill handicap. Astralis to keep this match within 10 kills would be a bet I would jump on instantly, but after seeing how they have performed against Vitality on Sunday, I can’t make myself get involved in any game with Astralis in it for a while longer.
Misfits Gaming vs Rogue
Friday, January 29 – 21:00 CET
Misfits remain one of the most unpredictable teams in the league and the type of team that can lose to anyone but also defeat anyone on any given day. That said I wouldn’t expect them to defeat Rogue, who are arguably the strongest team in the league – at least until G2 stop with their shenanigans.
Rogue are priced at 1.40 to win, which is way too high based on what we have seen from these two sides so far, but we also want to explore the over/under kill market. The line for total kills in this match is set at 22.5 which seems a bit low even though Rogue are not your typical aggressive team. As we have established before, however, Rogue tend to accumulate a nice number of kills when faced with aggressive teams and if there is one team that is aggressive and not afraid to fight it is Misfits.
Misfits have been involved in games that have seen 35, 19 and 37 kills, meaning they were a part of two of the highest-scoring games so far this split. Even though they have yet to face a strong team such as Rogue, Misfits have shown enough for us to believe they won’t get completely stomped on – at least in the early game.
Rogue to win is a bet we are going after, whereas the over 22.5 kills is something that might appeal to some. We will avoid it for now, since the LEC teams have started using safer picks such as Lulu and Ivern, who can slow down the game and have a rather large impact on the total kill count.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 1.40 at Pinnacle
Vitality vs Fnatic
Friday, January 29 – 22:00 CET
Team Vitality looked a bit shaky at times last week, but this team is capable of much more than how it seems. Not only have Vitality strong laters, but they are also very efficient in building up early-game leads. On the other side, it seems like Vitality have no idea how to win their games – that is unless they’re forced to fight from behind. It’s weird.
Fnatic are known for slow starts of the seasons and it’s fairly obvious 2021 won’t be any different. With all due respect, Fnatic looked disastrous in Week 1 and while they managed a somewhat better showing on Sunday, I would not put too much emphasis on one win alone.
I would normally avoid this bet, but at 2.78, Vitality are worth a shot. They are much stronger than how it may seem and while they have their own issues, I can’t trust Fnatic to look as good as the betting odds suggest.
Prediction: Team Vitality to win – 2.78 at Pinnacle