In the 19th round of Premier League, the league leaders Liverpool will host Newcastle at Anfield Stadium in hopes to add their 16th win to their record and with that increase, the gap between them and 2nd placed Manchester City.
Liverpool is currently leading the Premier League with a 15-3-0 record which means they have not yet tasted a defeat this season in the Premier League. In their last 5 games, Liverpool defeated Everton (1:0), Burnley (1:3), Bournemouth (0:4), Manchester United (3:1), Wolves (0:2). At home, Liverpool is enjoying a 7-1-0 record with 18 goals scored and only 2 conceded. In fact, Liverpool has the strongest defence in the league with only 7 goals conceded in 18 matches, which translates into only 0.4 goals/match. On the other side, Liverpool scored a total of 39 goals in 18 matches; which means they score 2.2 goals/match on average. All in all, Liverpool has proven to be a dominant force this season and if they can keep it up, the 9th League title should be theirs. In their most recent match against Wolves, Liverpool scored an opener in the 18th minute, which was also the only goal scored in the first half, despite a total of 6 shots on goal (4-2) from both teams combined. The second half was in Liverpool’s favour, as they held on to the ball for 61% of the time, had 10 goal attempts and 4 shots on goal. Wolves on the other side had only 39% possession of the ball, 3 goal attempts and 1 shot on goal. Despite 10 goal attempts, Liverpool scored only 1 goal, which to be fair was enough to secure the win with a 2 goal lead in 68th minute. The match ended as expected, with Liverpool winning their 15th match of the season. Final score: 0:2.
Newcastle is currently sitting at 15th spot in the league with an overall record of 4-5-9. In their last 5 games, they have won 1 against Huddersfield (0:1), drew 2 against Everton (1:1), Fulham (0:0) and lost 2 against Wolves (1:2) and West Hame (0:3). Looking at Newcastle most recent match against Fulham, the match ended without a goal. Newcastle had 54% ball possession, 9 goal attempts but no shots on goal. Fulham on the other side had 46% ball possession, 4 goal attempts and 2 shots on goal, however, they also failed to convert their chances into a goal. Despite their mediocre record in the past 5 games, Newcastle has not been playing particularly bad. They have got a decent defence which let in only 6 goals, but their main problem is their poor offence, which scored only 3 goals in the past 5 games. In the 18 games played, they scored 14 goals and conceded 22. With only 22 goals conceded, they are among the best defensive teams in the league but fail to perform in the offensive end as mentioned before. Looking at Newcastle away games, they are holding a 2-4-2 record with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded in the 8 games played.
This should be another match which Liverpool wins, but the AH line is set at -2.5 which is too low for us to consider betting on. When deciding on our prediction, we must take into consideration the schedule of fixtures for Liverpool. They will be playing 2 home matches before heading to Manchester, where they will play against Manchester City. This is important because the match against City will be an important match in the title race. In that regards, we do expect Liverpool to get ready for it and not “give their all” against Newcastle and Arsenal before the “big game”. The Over/Under line is set at 3.25 goals which is quite am attractive bet, taking into consideration what I previously mentioned. Liverpool is a clear favourite here, but I do not believe we will see 3 goals or more being scored, especially with Newcastle poor offence and decent defence.
Prediction: Under 3.00 goals