100 Thieves and TSM met three times since the LCS Lock-In tournament, when 100T picked up their first and only head-to-head victory against TSM, having lost the next two bouts during the regular season. Due to 100T’s struggles this season, the question for this match is not so much whether TSM can win, but rather what can 100T do to shock the seven-time LCS champions, as they look towards taking one step towards the organizations’ first LCS grand finals since 2018.
100 Thieves vs TSM
Saturday, April 4 at 13:00 PST
TSM should be viewed as the stronger team here, but the problem is that they don’t have the tools to exploit 100T’s weaknesses, which to some degree holds true the other way round as well. Looking at how TSM play, they are not a particularly flashy team that will roam the map and attack their opponents, but rather prioritize winning their lanes and use that advantage to snowball to victory.
This approach can easily be exploitable by early aggression and heavy roaming/collapsing, which would disrupt the flow of the game and deny TSM’s plan. The problem here is that 100T use a very similar strategy, effectively meaning this match will (likely) come down to the individual talent of players and which team makes fewer mistakes – that is if neither side decides to try out something new.
This might seem like a hot take, but if we compare 100T players’ numbers to that of TSM, you would find out that 100T have an edge, however, that is only because they field a MUCH stronger bottom lane. Looking at the match-ups lane-by-lane, and comparing the players based on their performances: Heo “Huni” Seung-hoon has been playing better than Kim “Ssumday” Chan-ho, Can “Closer” Çelik has been a better jungler than Mingyi “Spica” Lu, Tristan “PowerOfEvil” Schrage is a better mid laner than Tommy “ry0ma” Le, whereas the bottom lane (as mentioned above) is in favor of 100T.
This essentially means 100T have an advantage in two lanes, and TSM in the remaining two, however, the quality gap between Ian Victor “FBI” Huang and Lawrence “Lost” Sze Yuy Hui is so big that you have to side with 100T as the better team individual quality-wise.
100T are very unpredictable
As we have established, 100T should have an edge when it comes to individual quality, however, they’re a type of team you don’t know what to expect from. They have had more than a few disastrous performances this season, and just as many games where they looked very good, which makes it very hard to say how good this team really is.
100T’s biggest problem is that they rarely gain advantages when they don’t win skirmishes, which is something I don’t like in teams, as it shows they don’t know how to get leads elsewhere on the map. Then there is also 100T’s inability to punish their opponents’ mistakes and their poor decision-making.
Volatility can win you games
On paper, these two sides look fairly equally matched, with similar (underwhelming) metrics however, the eye test shows there is a huge difference between the two. TSM come off as a very consistent team, whereas 100T are extremely volatile which is a trait that has earned them some very high highs, but also low lows.
*AmoW – Average Margin of Victory
*AmoL – Average Margin of Loss
Due to 100T’s unpredictability, it’s also tough to say whether we are in for a slow-paced and low-kill series, or will 100T turn on their jets and look to run over TSM early on. The latter approach could prove beneficial against TSM’s playstyle, but it could also work as a double-edged sword as it has numerous times before. For that reason, I would avoid betting on kill totals for this match.
Betting Tips for 100 Thieves vs TSM
TSM enter this match as favorites, which I don’t have a problem with, since they are in my book a far more reliable and better team. Although I’ve noted that 100T should have a slight edge when it comes to the individual talent of their players, the eye-test makes it very hard for me to take 100T.
100 Thieves looked very good in their series against Dignitas, but that match was more Dignitas not playing well rather than 100T showing any exceptional quality. Similarly, TSM’s victory against Evil Geniuses (3-1), was not exactly something to write home about.
If I had to pick a side, it would probably be 100T, just because you can get them at 2.49 (Pinnacle). While they should be losing this game more times than not, they can have their moments of greatness, so there is definitely a chance where they come out ahead. That said, this match is way too unpredictable for me to take a bet on either team and will instead pick up a few proposition bets.
Proposition Betting Tips
100T boast a higher dragon control, yet are still priced as high as 1.90 to kill the first dragon on all three maps, which seems a bit too generous considering they should have bottom lane priority and better control over the bottom river. 100T to destroy the first turret is another bet worth considering at the right price since they’re statistically just as effective in taking down turrets as TSM. These bets can be placed for all three maps.
|Team/Stat||Dragon control||Herald control||First Turret|
Prediction: 100 Thieves to secure the first drake – 1.90 Bet365
Prediction: 100 Thieves to destroy the first turret – 2.00 Bet365
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