Lindsey Vonn has won a record eight downhill crystal globes among men and women. This ties the record for most World Cup victories in a single discipline as Ingemar Stenmark won the slalom and giant slalom titles also eight times. She has won 77 World Cup races, most among women and leaving her nine short of the all-time record set by Stenmark (86). Vonn has won a record 39 World Cup downhill events among men and women. Annemarie Moser-Pröll follows with 36 victories. Only Stenmark (40 in slalom and 46 in giant slalom) has won more World Cup races in a specific event. Vonn has claimed a record 61 World Cup podiums in downhill. Only Stenmark (81 in slalom and 72 in giant slalom) has claimed more World Cup podium finishes in a specific discipline. Vonn has won 18 World Cup races in Lake Louise, a record number of wins by a skier, male or female, at a single resort. Fourteen of those victories came in downhill, at least double the amount that any other skier has managed in any discipline in a single host city (7 by Moser-Pröll in Pfronten in downhill). Last season, Vonn was absent from Lake Louise due to injury. She won the last three downhill races at the Canadian ski resort that she has participated in: the second race in 2014 and both races in 2015. Vonn will be 33 years and 44 days old on the day of the first downhill race in Lake Louise. She can become the second-oldest woman to win a World Cup race, after Elisabeth Görgl who won the super-G in Val d’Isère in December 2014 at the age of 33 years and 304 days.
She is currently a favourite to win the race, priced at around 1.80 at Pinnacle, which is too low for me to recommend a bet on her. Sure, she has won her last three race here, but these wins came in 2015 and 2014, when she was in an outstanding form. She had an almost perfect 2016 season in downhill, winning in six races, along with one second place and two DNFs. In her 2017 season, she attended seven Downhill races, but won only one, while she recorded two second and two third places, along with one 13th place and a DNF at Cortina d`Ampezzo. Pinnacle offers an option for Vonn to not win the race at the odds close to 2.00 and this looks like a better option than betting on her to win today.
Lara Gut has won 23 World Cup races: 11 in super-G, seven in downhill, four in giant slalom and one in alpine combined. Three of Gut’s World Cup race victories came in Lake Louise, but all in super-G. She has only won more World Cup events in Val d’Isère (4). Gut is one win shy from equalling Marie-Theres Nadig and Lise-Marie Morerod (both 24) in joint-fifth place for most World Cup race wins among Swiss women (all disciplines). Maria Walliser is in fourth place on 25 wins and Michaela Figini in third place on 26 victories. Gut (7) is two wins shy from entering the top-10 of women with most World Cup downhill race wins. Picabo Street is currently in 10th place with nine victories. The Swiss won in her last World Cup appearance in downhill, finishing first in Cortina d’Ampezzo on 28 January 2017. Her 18 World Cup wins in the speed events rank her sixth all-time among women, behind Lindsey Vonn (66), Renate Götschl (41), Annemarie Moser-Pröll (36), Katja Seizinger (32) and Figini (20). Previous season, she was forced to end her season prematurely during the World Championships last February. At the time she was leading the super-G standings and was only 180 points behind Mikaela Shiffrin in the Overall standings. Apparently, her recovery went better than planned and she participated in fist giant slalom race of the season, but she didn’t manage to even finish the first run. She is priced around 3.40 for a podium finish at Bet365.
Sofia Goggia has finished on five World Cup downhill podiums, all in the previous season. Goggia claimed a top-three finish in each of the last three World Cup races in this discipline: second in Cortina d’Ampezzo, first in Jeongseon and third in Aspen. Her win in Jeongseon marked her first and only World Cup win to-date in downhill. Only Isolde Kostner (12) and Elena Fanchini (2) have won multiple World Cup downhill races among Italian women. Kostner (1999, 2000, two in 2001) and Elena Fanchini (2005) are also the only Italian women to win a World Cup downhill event in Lake Louise. Cortina d’Ampezzo (6) and Lake Louise (5) are the only ski resorts where Italian women have claimed multiple downhill victories in the World Cup. In all disciplines, Italian women have only won more World Cup races in Cortina d’Ampezzo (9) than in Lake Louise (7). She is priced at 13.00 at Bet365 for an outright win and 4.00 for the podium finish.
Prediction: Lindsey Vonn vs The Field: The Field
Odds: 2.09 Pinnacle
Prediction: Sofia Goggia Podium Finish
Odds: 4.00 Bet365